A promising alternative to prediction of seasonal mean all India rainfall

Prediction of seasonal mean All India Rainfall (AIR) is useful during extreme monsoon years (droughts and floods) when the rainfall anomaly is homogeneous over the country. It is, however, useless for any regional hydro-meteorological applications during 'normal' monsoon years (70 per cent of available record), when the rainfall anomaly is quite inhomogeneous within the country. Further, there exists an intrinsic limit to predict the seasonal mean monsoon. The theoretically achievable skill (with perfect model and near perfect data) for seasonal prediction of rainfall being barely useful, there is a need to explore an alternative strategy for monsoon prediction even if it is with a shorter lead time. Based on some of our previous work, we propose here that predicting the phases of the monsoon sub-seasonal oscillation (active and break spells) 3-4 weeks in advance is such an alternative strategy. We argue that such predictions would be more useful for regional hydro-meteorological applications. Potential for such extended range prediction is demonstrated. Using an empirical model, it is further demonstrated that this potential can be achieved and useful prediction of monsoon breaks three weeks in advance could be made. Future direction in improving such extended range prediction of sub-seasonal spells is discussed

On the identification of earlywood and latewood radial elastic modulus of Pinus pinaster by digital image correlation: a parametric analysis

This work addresses the reconstruction of strain gradient fields at the wood growth ring scale from full-field deformation measurements provided by digital image correlation. Moreover, the spatial distribution of the earlywood and latewood radial modulus of elasticity is assessed. Meso-scale tensile tests are carried out on Pinus pinaster Ait. Wooden specimens oriented in the radial–tangential plane under quasi-static loading conditions. A parametric analysis of the twodimensional digital image correlation extrinsic and intrinsic setting parameters is performed, in a balance between spatial resolution and resolution. It is shown that the parametric module is an effective way to quantitatively support the choice of digital image correlation parameters in the presence of the high deformation gradient fields generated by the structure–property relationships at the scale of observation. Under the assumption of a uniaxial tensile stress state, the spatial distribution of the radial elastic modulus across the growth rings is obtained. It is observed that the ratio of the radial modulus of elasticity between latewood and earlywood tissues can vary significantly as a function of the digital image correlation parameters. It is pointed out, however, that a convergence value can be systematically established. Effectively, earlywood and latewood stress–strain curves are obtained and elastic properties are determined assuming the converged digital image correlation setting parameters

On the selection and design of proteins and peptide derivatives for the production of photoluminescent, red-emitting gold quantum clusters

Novel pathways of the synthesis of photoluminescent gold quantum clusters (AuQCs) using biomolecules as reactants provide biocompatible products for biological imaging techniques. In order to rationalize the rules for the preparation of red-emitting AuQCs in aqueous phase using proteins or peptides, the role of different organic structural units was investigated. Three systems were studied: proteins, peptides, and amino acid mixtures, respectively. We have found that cysteine and tyrosine are indispensable residues. The SH/S-S ratio in a single molecule is not a critical factor in the synthesis, but on the other hand, the stoichiometry of cysteine residues and the gold precursor is crucial. These observations indicate the importance of proper chemical behavior of all species in a wide size range extending from the atomic distances (in the AuI-S semi ring) to nanometer distances covering the larger sizes of proteins assuring the hierarchical structure of the whole self-assembled system

Microevolution of Helicobacter pylori during prolonged infection of single hosts and within families

Our understanding of basic evolutionary processes in bacteria is still very limited. For example, multiple recent dating estimates are based on a universal inter-species molecular clock rate, but that rate was calibrated using estimates of geological dates that are no longer accepted. We therefore estimated the short-term rates of mutation and recombination in Helicobacter pylori by sequencing an average of 39,300 bp in 78 gene fragments from 97 isolates. These isolates included 34 pairs of sequential samples, which were sampled at intervals of 0.25 to 10.2 years. They also included single isolates from 29 individuals (average age: 45 years) from 10 families. The accumulation of sequence diversity increased with time of separation in a clock-like manner in the sequential isolates. We used Approximate Bayesian Computation to estimate the rates of mutation, recombination, mean length of recombination tracts, and average diversity in those tracts. The estimates indicate that the short-term mutation rate is 1.4×10−6 (serial isolates) to 4.5×10−6 (family isolates) per nucleotide per year and that three times as many substitutions are introduced by recombination as by mutation. The long-term mutation rate over millennia is 5–17-fold lower, partly due to the removal of non-synonymous mutations due to purifying selection. Comparisons with the recent literature show that short-term mutation rates vary dramatically in different bacterial species and can span a range of several orders of magnitude

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Protein Kinase A Binds and Activates Heat Shock Factor 1

BACKGROUND. Many inducible transcription factors are regulated through batteries of posttranslational modifications that couple their activity to inducing stimuli. We have studied such regulation of Heat Shock Factor 1 (HSF1), a key protein in control of the heat shock response, and a participant in carcinogenisis, neurological health and aging. As the mechanisms involved in the intracellular regulation of HSF1 in good health and its dysregulation in disease are still incomplete we are investigating the role of posttranslational modifications in such regulation. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. In a proteomic study of HSF1 binding partners, we have discovered its association with the pleiotropic protein kinase A (PKA). HSF1 binds avidly to the catalytic subunit of PKA, (PKAca) and becomes phosphorylated on a novel serine phosphorylation site within its central regulatory domain (serine 320 or S320), both in vitro and in vivo. Intracellular PKAca levels and phosphorylation of HSF1 at S320 were both required for HSF1 to be localized to the nucleus, bind to response elements in the promoter of an HSF1 target gene (hsp70.1) and activate hsp70.1 after stress. Reduction in PKAca levels by small hairpin RNA led to HSF1 exclusion from the nucleus, its exodus from the hsp70.1 promoter and decreased hsp70.1 transcription. Likewise, null mutation of HSF1 at S320 by alanine substitution for serine led to an HSF1 species excluded from the nucleus and deficient in hsp70.1 activation. CONCLUSIONS. These findings of PKA regulation of HSF1 through S320 phosphorylation add to our knowledge of the signaling networks converging on this factor and may contribute to elucidating its complex roles in the stress response and understanding HSF1 dysregulation in disease.National Institutes of Health (2RO1CA047407, RO1CA077465

The role of potential vorticity anomalies in the Somali Jet on Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal variability

The climate of the Indian subcontinent is dominated by rainfall arising from the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) during the summer season (June to September). Intraseasonal variability during the monsoon is characterized by periods of heavy rainfall interspersed by drier periods, known as active and break events respectively. Understanding and predicting such events is of vital importance for forecasting human impacts such as water resources. The Somali Jet is a key regional feature of this circulation. In the present study, we find that the spatial structure of Somali Jet potential vorticity (PV) anomalies varies considerably during active and break periods. Analysis of these anomalies shows a mechanism whereby sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies propagate north/northwestwards through the Arabian Sea, caused by a positive feedback loop joining anomalies in SST, convection, modification of PV by diabatic heating and mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer, wind stress curl, and upwelling processes. The feedback mechanism is consistent with observed coupled ocean-atmosphere system variability timescales of approximately 20 days. This research suggests that better understanding and prediction of monsoon subseasonal variability in the South Asian monsoon may be gained by analysis of the day-to-day dynamical evolution of PV in the Somali Jet

Thermal conductivity and thermal boundary resistance of nanostructures

International audienceWe present a fabrication process of low-cost superlattices and simulations related with the heat dissipation on them. The influence of the interfacial roughness on the thermal conductivity of semiconductor/semiconductor superlattices was studied by equilibrium and non-equilibrium molecular dynamics and on the Kapitza resistance of superlattice's interfaces by equilibrium molecular dynamics. The non-equilibrium method was the tool used for the prediction of the Kapitza resistance for a binary semiconductor/metal system. Physical explanations are provided for rationalizing the simulation results

The resolution sensitivity of the Asian summer monsoon and its inter-model comparison between MRI-AGCM and MetUM

In this study, we compare the resolution sensitivity of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM) in two Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs): the MRI-AGCM and the MetUM. We analyze the MetUM at three different resolutions, N96 (approximately 200-km mesh on the equator), N216 (90-km mesh) and N512 (40-km mesh), and the MRI-AGCM at TL95 (approximately 180-km mesh on the equator), TL319 (60-km mesh), and TL959 (20-km mesh). The MRI-AGCM and the MetUM both show decreasing precipitation over the western Pacific with increasing resolution, but their precipitation responses differ over the Indian Ocean. In MRI-AGCM, a large precipitation increase appears off the equator (5–20°N). In MetUM, this off-equatorial precipitation increase is less significant and precipitation decreases over the equator. Moisture budget analysis demonstrates that a changing in moisture flux convergence at higher resolution is related to the precipitation response. Orographic effects, intra-seasonal variability and the representation of the meridional thermal gradient are explored as possible causes of the resolution sensitivity. Both high-resolution AGCMs (TL959 and N512) can represent steep topography, which anchors the rainfall pattern over south Asia and the Maritime Continent. In MRI-AGCM, representation of low pressure systems in TL959 also contributes to the rainfall pattern. Furthermore, the seasonal evolution of the meridional thermal gradient appears to be more accurate at higher resolution, particularly in the MRI-AGCM. These findings emphasize that the impact of resolution is only robust across the two AGCMs for some features of the ASM, and highlights the importance of multi-model studies of GCM resolution sensitivity